I've survived rounds of layoffs multiple times at many jobs. I've seen the signs ahead of time, and can pretty much predict who gets cut. This is what you should know. (This primarily applies to a corporate/office environment).
I've worked a few places where the writing was on the wall for several months before the actual layoffs, yet I saw so many coworkers taken with complete surprise and utter shock when it happened. You should know the signs, so you can update your resume and start planning your references ahead of time. If you're lucky you'll get severance, but it may not be that good, and it's not guaranteed. These are all potential signs your job may be endangered. See a few of these going on at the same time? The writing is on the wall and you're a fool not to see it.
Sign 1 – The financials. If your company is public you can look these up online. You may not know anything about finance, but you can still get good indicators from some basic numbers: Net Income compared to the prior years, revenue or comparable sales year over years, and operating expenses over prior years. You may think the company is fine because Net Income is positive, however the business leaders hold to an idea that anything other than continuing growth in profits is a bad sign. If there's a trend down in revenue, comp sales, net income, and a trend up in expenses and it's significant and ongoing you should know they are already thinking about layoffs. Sure, you saw them spend loads on an office remodel, a poor advertising campaign, or executive pay and perks, but without fail they will always look to recoup their perceived losses from employee pay first.
Sign 2 – There are lots of unfamiliar suits walking around, checking things out. These are either consultants brought in, who will rearrange all the departments and ultimately screw everything up because they don't actually understand the real work, or they are private equity people. Private equity people are the worst. If you have even a hint they are in the office prepare for multiple rounds of layoffs. Which brings me to…
Sign 3 – Activist investors. It doesn't mean investors who are pushing for some sort of social change. It actually means opportunistic predatory investors. They buy a stock they think is undervalued, make a public stink about how management isn't doing enough, then next thing you know your workplace is being bought out by a private equity firm. If your company is publicly traded sign up for news alerts on your company's stock symbol. You'll get news stories about what's going on with the stock, potential mergers, business strategy, etc.
Sign 5 – The stock price is tanking steadily, and it's not related to what is happening in the market at large.
Sign 6 – Your company isn't really turning a profit. It's being kept alive by investor money because you are working at a sexy new business that's currently just in a hype phase. This goes on too long and there will be layoffs.
Sign 7 – Construction that goes nowhere. A new building or remodel is never getting finished. You were all supposed to move to a fancy new campus, but it's sitting empty and you're still in your old cubicle months later.
Sign 8 – This applies more to smaller businesses: there's a lot of waste in production due to some employees making repeat mistakes and it's noticable. Or employees have been there for years and treat work more as a social outing. Trust me, management knows and is just looking for an opportunity to clean house.
Sign 9 – Small perks are disappearing rapidly. No more free paper plates and utensils, company picnics, coffee, t shirts, etc. You used to have a fancy party during the holidays, now it's a pot luck in a conference room. Petty penny pinching. This is a sign they are worried about expenses. It starts with extreme frugality and unless business turns around it snowballs into layoffs.
Sign 10 – There have already been quiet, secret, small scale layoffs. Perhaps you notice some departments shrank a couple positions. Or there was a localized “reorganization” and now your accounts payable department, or a help desk department, or call center has been outsourced. More is coming.
Sign 11 – Mergers. If any of the stuff listed above is happening, management is probably already looking at a merger. If you get a hint of a merger you should have already been looking for a new job. It's the Thunderdome of job positions: two workers for every position; one leaves. It's probably you.
Who is most likely to get chopped? It could be whole departments that can easily be outsourced. Marketing always seems to get some major cuts first. Management loves marketing when things are going well, but they are easy to cut when sales are down. But usually upper management will give lower management a number of positions to cut in every department. So if you don't get along with your boss? It's not looking good for you. Loudmouths get cut. Never take on anything extra? You're going to go. Do you complain a lot? Whine about the work or express dissatisfaction often? Buh bye. Near retirement? Welcome to early involuntary retirement. Manager of a tiny department? They'll just reassign your team to someone with a bigger umbrella.
You may be totally justified doing your own job tasks, nothing extra, and complaining about things that are unfair, exploitative, ridiculous, or other things we shouldn't have to put up with at work. However at the end of the day when a layoffs is on the horizon, whoever is left will be doing the work of more than one person. And management will keep whoever they think can do the job and who they can stand to be around. If you speak up against management or the work in any way, no matter how good you are at your job you're probably on the short list of people who will get cut.
So now what?
- Update your resume. Get it out there. Speak to a recruiter, whatever you have to do. Line up your references. Take interviews. Be prepared. Start networking now. Ageism is a thing. Get an up to date haircut and hide the grays. Get a couple of items that update your wardrobe. You may be older, but you want to appear to have energy and enthusiasm (even if you're faking it). Don't look outdated. If you haven't bought new clothes in years it shows. You can easily shop at a thrift store and update your look. I had a friend who did a year long experiment where she just dressed better for work every day but changed nothing, absolutely nothing about her actual work. Nothing changed other than a minor upgrade to her wardrobe. She got a promotion and a raise and glowing reviews. It's bullshit but it matters in how your employer perceives you.
Even if you survive the layoff that doesn't mean more aren't coming later. If you are valuable they may throw retention bonuses at you, but think carefully about sticking around. Read any such offers very closely and remember to put yourself first. They may have kept you, but that doesn't mean they won't axe you immediately if they think it's in their best interests. A retention bonus may have strings that work against you in the end, or may make finding a job in the same industry more difficult later.
I'm sure others here have valuable insight having gone through similar experiences. But I had a friend get laid off who was really angry they “weren't told ahead of time it was coming.” He was shocked when I told him that being told layoffs are coming is the exception, rather than the norm. You likely won't be warned. Know the signs.