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Antiwork

Why the Fed is wrong about WFH and inflation

The Fed recently released a study (https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/september/remote-work-and-housing-demand) claiming to show that working from home has caused more than 60% of the increase in housing prices since the end of 2019. The study is a textbook case of confusing correlation with causation. And this isn't just a theoretical failing – the study itself notes a confounding factor that could point to other causes. The study finds a correlation between WFH differences between areas and differences in housing price increases. It also notes that areas “with more remote work before the pandemic saw larger increases in remote work during the pandemic,” and also notes several systematic differences between areas with more WFH and those with less: “types of jobs,” “cheaper and more housing,” and “pleasant climates.” Each of those factors – and systematic differences that cause them, or that they cause – is a possible cause of the observed differences in housing…


The Fed recently released a study (https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/september/remote-work-and-housing-demand) claiming to show that working from home has caused more than 60% of the increase in housing prices since the end of 2019.

The study is a textbook case of confusing correlation with causation. And this isn't just a theoretical failing – the study itself notes a confounding factor that could point to other causes.

The study finds a correlation between WFH differences between areas and differences in housing price increases. It also notes that areas “with more remote work before the pandemic saw larger increases in remote work during the pandemic,” and also notes several systematic differences between areas with more WFH and those with less: “types of jobs,” “cheaper and more housing,” and “pleasant climates.”

Each of those factors – and systematic differences that cause them, or that they cause – is a possible cause of the observed differences in housing price increases. Therefore, their attribution to WFH is unsupported.

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