Hey guys. Just wanted to talk about two things I see as a huge issue that I haven't necessarily seen highlighted here.
Way back in high-school econ we learned about specialization as it relates to jobs: that is to say that as technology continues to improve, the highest paying jobs that work with these new technologies require increasing levels of expertise, or specialization. Back then, I extrapolated and saw a huge issue. Now with AI, the issue is plainly obvious.
Let's just take the internet and computers as an example of a technology that's been introduced that has required us to further specialize our knowledge.
Highest paying job: quant trader/programmer
High: engineer
Medium: cybersecurity
Low: IT
All of these jobs pay pretty well, and all require increasing levels of education and training with computers and writing code. It's not surprising then, that there are simply way more IT personnel than there are quants. A Quant makes 500k+ entry level depending on the firm. IT entry level is 40-50k. Quants come from ivy leagues, IT doesn't necessarily need a degree, just certification.
Okay. So how does this relate to the broader economy?
Well, there are more IT techs than there are quants. There are also way more burger flippers than there are IT techs. And trust me, you make a lot more fixing people's computer problems around the office than you do flipping burgers.
As technology continues to improve and systems become more and more complex, the knowledge and skills required to do the most “important” or highest paying jobs, becomes greater. In turn, that means fewer and fewer people are capable of doing the highest paying work as the years go on.
Now, AI is probably going to put tons of people out of a job. Didn't take CS with a focus in machine-learning straight out of high-school? Tough shit kid!
We know that artists, musicians, even news reporters, photographers, writers, all these jobs might be replaced by AI and this is just based on infant AI capabilities.
We are already a nation of “burger flippers” thanks to the technological advances we've already lived through, and now a technology has arrived that will ensure 95% of the population is relegated to food service (unless they replace those too!) I guess the world always needs ditch diggers.
My point is that when people say “oh, that job isn't supposed to be where you make your living” or “well they shouldn't have to pay a living wage, you're not meant to make a career of it” they don't know what they're talking about.
When 90% of your citizens can only do the least specialized work, you better fucking pay them a living wage or you've got a huge fucking problem on your hands.
We are rapidly moving towards an environment where UBI is a necessity, or corporations must be forced to pay a living wage indexed to inflation. If we don't, this country isn't going to last another 100 years.
Lots of people work at fast food chains, or in an Amazon warehouse, or as a floor person for the telecoms or tech companies. As an alternative, people can try their hand at art, music, photography, or a plethora of side hustles and alternatives. Now that AI is looking to take away all the alternatives, we will be left as a nation of “burger flippers”. And if wages stay static? We're going to be a nation of extreme poverty, where holding 2-3 of these menial jobs isn't even enough, and in many ways we are already.
Tldr; the more complex the highest paying jobs become, and the more education required to do them, the less people can do them. Add AI to the mix killing alternatives to unskilled labor, and you have a serious fucking issue on your hands.