I will not say my employer due to my position being unique with unique access to financials. In the past 30 days we had our earnings call with reputable investors.
There is a economic bubble popping in 3-4 months. Retailers are pulling back. Comp sales are declining in the retail sector and cancelled orders are on the rise. Staffing is becoming easier across markets and wage compression is plateauing.
Off price sector is already seeing new customers who are trading down as money tightens. Discount chains such ad Aldi's and Grocery Outlet have already scene foot traffic increases.
Discount clothers ross/tjmaxx/Bealls outlet are seeing this as well.
As recession is closer stores like ollies/ dirt cheap will see an increase for hard good sales. Those general good liquidation stores will be the true sign of a recession when thier foot traffic increases.
3 months is chosen as thats typically when final notices on bills turn into disconnects. 3 months is when a true sign of mortgage defaults are planned to show.
What does this mean? Well if you are hourly, you'll get fucked. Companies typically cut payroll as the main controllable expense when sells decline.
HR folks may also see reduction as that division is typically the first to go when company's are stressed financially.
Now if you are wealthly? Get ready to be more wealthy and make profit on misfortune of others.
Sources: Goldman Sachs, USB, JP Morgan earnings calls.