Inflation Theory of Prolonged Abnormally High Inflation
(as evident by Anecdotal Qualitative Analysis with some Quantitative data sprinkled in)
Anecdotal evidence here. I worked in multiple different industries, education, prison guard, mailman, UPS, Amazon, fast food, limousine taxi, regular security guard AND one thing they all have in common, there’s not enough workers. Being short staffed is miserable and the work is very hard.
My dads brother, my uncle, is a mechanic, for over thirty years, and he tells me the new grads of automotive mechanic schools lack major skills and he has to train them and there’s a major shortage of mechanics. He tells me this all the time.
Texas and Florida are banning water breaks, and banning other workers rights protections that once existed, no longer exists.
Union membership is currently at an all time low, according to the BLS.
At the end of the day we (workers) want to work 8 hours, have a consistent workload, more PTO days, great healthcare benefits, ability to have water breaks, have a predictable schedule, and without being micro managed. Everyone (in management) has a attitude these days or your jobs is so short staffed you working yourself to death. We don’t want pay raises, we want what I mentioned, above. The workload is insane these days.
Yet the employers don’t listen, the state governments don’t listen (especially the states that discourage unions). They only know one thing and one thing only, “Raise the pay! That will attract workers!”
Pay isn’t everything (unpopular opinion) but our employers and state governments lack communication skills, they are not listening to our concerns, management does not have the proper interpersonal skills to listen to workers and much less the incentive to act on those concerns. They literally address labor shortages by increasing the wages.
UPS minimum wage will be $21 (pending vote likely to succeed), in response Amazon is probably going to respond with higher wages. So will FedEx, and then the post office. But fast food are competing for similar entry level workers, they have to raise their wages to compete for and retain workers. State prison guards are increasing their pay all over the USA (most recently Missouri). The only thing these employers know is “raise the pay” and that’s it, they know nothing else. Yet, I personally don’t want to make $21 an hour, I would rather have $15, with great healthcare benefits, respectful management, lots of PTO time, etc…
No one is listening workers concerns, as evident by lowest all time union memberships, and the lowest (or among the lowest) labor force participation rate of recent time (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART ) Raising the wages really doesn’t help that much if your workplace is miserable. loyalty would be frail.
My prediction is, In ten years, it will be possible to make $30 as an entry level worker. We are going into a price wage spiral because no one wants to work mainly caused by our management, and our leaders that lack the interpersonal skills, listening and talking, and the incentive to act on workers rights. They only know one thing and one thing only, “Raise the pay! That will attract workers!”